ABSTRACT
The research objects are the tax and budgetary policies of the Russian Federation. In this research, financial (budgetary) risks are understood as a decrease in the balance of the state (national) budget resulting from a reduction in revenues or an increase in expenditures. This research considers production in the main sectors of the economy as a key factor of financial risk during the COVID-19 pandemic. The research aims to analyze the main directions of the budgetary and tax policy of the Russian Federation that aimed at supporting the economy and the population during the spread of COVID-19, which is especially relevant in connection with the expected recession in a number of sectors of the economy and a decrease in the level of employment and, accordingly, the well-being of citizens. In these conditions, it is necessary to adjust the budgetary and tax policy to preserve the state's social obligations and expand social and economic support for businesses and citizens to smooth out the negative consequences of the impact of restrictive measures. The authors applied systemic and institutional approaches and statistical methods. The main results of the research reflect the need to (1) implement support measures (tax and budgetary incentives) for small and medium-sized enterprises, on which the crisis provoked by the COVID-19 pandemic has had the most destructive impact, and (2) to expand the volume of budgetary financing of social programs for financial risk management of the Russian economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Compositionally, the article consists of the following sections: the introduction, which provides an overview of the publication activity in the field of financing measures to overcome the spread of COVID-19 and substantiates the relevance and purpose of the study;the literature review, which lists modern authors whose works were aimed at studying similar issues as well as the methodological apparatus used by them, which are suitable for adaptation;the section ‘materials and methods', which provides more adaptive methods of other people's research and the authors selected in accordance with them are listed;the results section, in which the authors present the main array of statistical data, which is then discussed. At the end of the article, the authors draw conclusions about the applied fiscal policy tools that can be used effectively in the new economic reality.
ABSTRACT
The paper is devoted to assessing the possibilities of using labor resources in the Russian economy, when considering it as a closed ecosystem. Due to the sanctions, which will significantly limit the possibility of using foreign labor, the issue of rational and economical use of labor resources becomes relevant. The basis for the reproduction of the number of employed is the permanent population of the country. As factors influencing the dynamics of the process, control actions are chosen in the form of employment levels of the population. The processes of aging of the labor force in Russia are predicted as a result of the pension reform due to an increase in the average age of the employed by about one year. The forecast estimate of the economy's additional annual demand for personnel shows, on average, a one-third decrease in the volume of annual demand for personnel. The simulation modeling of the forecast number of the employed population in Russia made it possible to assess the potential volume of labor resources that the country can count on in the future. This will help to make scientifically based management decisions to improve the efficiency of the use of available labor resources. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.
ABSTRACT
In the period 2020-2022 the Russian economy has been facing the new, unprecedented challenges of coronavirus and sanctions. In order to analyze the current state of affairs, we are offering an econometric study of Russia's macroeconomic production function for 1990-2022 and an estimation of the marginal rate of technical substitution under internal and external restrictions associated with the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and the conduct of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, accompanied by increased sanctions pressure on the Russian economy. We have obtained several significant results. In the years 1991-1996 the marginal rate of technical substitution was increasing, and in 1997-2020 it was decreasing except for 2008-2009 and 2015. In the context of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic, the main reasons for the Russian economy's decline in 2020 and growth in 2021 were, first of all, fluctuations in the world crude oil price, and not the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic as such. We did not find any evidence that the decline in the world crude oil price in 2020 was caused by a decrease in demand from China, since Russian oil exports to China increased. Contrary to many negative forecasts, the results of our forecasting of Russia's GDP for 2022 show that under sharply increased sanctions pressure, with the world price of Urals oil at $60 per barrel, the average growth rate will be 0%, while at $70 it will be 4%, and at $80 it will be 7%. Under the reduced demand for Russian gas and the shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, the forecast volumes of gross natural gas production by Gazprom (excluding Gazprom Neft) in the Tyumen Region for 2022, based on the exponential production function studied by econometric methods, range from 364 to 392 billion cubic meters. Using the example of Great Britain, where in 2021 the average actual export prices for Russian oil and gas were the lowest compared to other Western European countries, we discuss the economic inexpediency of setting marginal prices for Russian energy products by Western consumers.
ABSTRACT
In the period 2020-2022 the Russian economy has been facing the new, unprecedented challenges of coronavirus and sanctions. In order to analyze the current state of affairs, we are offering an econometric study of Russia's macroeconomic production function for 1990-2022 and an estimation of the marginal rate of technical substitution under internal and external restrictions associated with the spread of the Wuhan coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) and the conduct of Russia's special military operation in Ukraine, accompanied by increased sanctions pressure on the Russian economy. We have obtained several significant results. In the years 1991-1996 the marginal rate of technical substitution was increasing, and in 1997-2020 it was decreasing except for 2008-2009 and 2015. In the context of the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic, the main reasons for the Russian economy's decline in 2020 and growth in 2021 were, first of all, fluctuations in the world crude oil price, and not the Wuhan coronavirus pandemic as such. We did not find any evidence that the decline in the world crude oil price in 2020 was caused by a decrease in demand from China, since Russian oil exports to China increased. Contrary to many negative forecasts, the results of our forecasting of Russia's GDP for 2022 show that under sharply increased sanctions pressure, with the world price of Urals oil at $60 per barrel, the average growth rate will be 0%, while at $70 it will be 4%, and at $80 it will be 7%. Under the reduced demand for Russian gas and the shutdown of the Nord Stream 1 gas pipeline, the forecast volumes of gross natural gas production by Gazprom (excluding Gazprom Neft) in the Tyumen Region for 2022, based on the exponential production function studied by econometric methods, range from 364 to 392 billion cubic meters. Using the example of Great Britain, where in 2021 the average actual export prices for Russian oil and gas were the lowest compared to other Western European countries, we discuss the economic inexpediency of setting marginal prices for Russian energy products by Western consumers. © 2022 The authors.
ABSTRACT
The review considers the results of a study implemented in 2020-early 2021, and reflected in the presented collective monograph. It is shown that the applied approach (macroeconomic analysis in combination with the mezzo-level analysis of each of the industries and at the level of individual firms) enabled showing an ambiguous reaction to the pandemic of different companies and the new risks and opportunities associated with it in six sectors of the Russian economy, and in the global context of the development of the relevant sectors in the world economy. In particular, the trends of the previous development, as well as the situation in the first period of the pandemic and after the initial recovery, as well as possible trajectories of further development in retail trade, IT, the tourism sector, pharmaceutical production, automotive industry and the chemical industry are considered. The resulting picture allows us to better understand both the opportunities and limitations of further development, as well as the challenges and possible junctions the Russian state policy is facing. In the book they are presented as follows: (1) the further increase in the already high internal and interregional divergence (regarding the technological development, productivity, profitability, etc.) in sectors with vertical coordination;(2) the further digitalization, which in sectors with developed horizontal ties will entail updating business models and formats;(3) the increased role of intangible assets of companies (knowledge, skills), growing competition both within and between industries for human capital;(4) health, safety, nutrition, and entertainment will become the core drivers of the economy.. In conclusion, critical remarks are formulated: underestimation of the specifics of the pandemic as an extra-economic shock, in comparison with typical economic crises (and models for overcoming them);the need to analyze the general trends in the global and Russian economies in the context of the downward wave of the current long economic cycle;compositional difficulties of the monograph.
ABSTRACT
Humans are living longer than ever before, and people above 65 are the fastest growing age group in the world. However, while technological progress, the proliferation of the internet and business innovation – among other factors – have inspired other age groups to increasingly adopt e-commerce, this has not been the case for elderly people, particularly those in Russia. This paper is a literature review examining the existing literature on the challenges elderly people face in buying and selling goods and services online. It connects existing data on the consumption patterns in Russia with the leading theories on consumer behaviour, and narrows it down to contemporary research on the elderly. Among other factors, this paper found that Russian elderly consumers and small entrepreneurs continue to prefer brick-and-mortar companies to e-commerce. Difficulty with verifying a product’s quality, problems with navigating complex websites, a fear of making financial transactions online, and a fear of receiving counterfeit products are some of the main factors contributing to this. Furthermore, this paper also found that companies currently fail to target elderly customers compared to other market segments, thereby failing to make their online platforms responsive to the specific needs of the elderly. However, there remains a significant gap in existing literature on the consumer behaviour of elderly people in e-commerce. And research specific to Russian elderly entrepreneurs remains limited. Moreover, leading theories on consumer behaviour are also less relevant to elderly consumers in a digital age. This presents additional opportunities for further research. The current COVID-19 pandemic which has disproportionately affected older people has placed a greater urgency on this research. Therefore, the outcome will be relevant to policy makers and political leaders worried about reducing the fatality rate of the pandemic while boosting economic growth, and for businesses trying to innovate web-platforms to increase turnover. It will also be a crucial contribution to the existing literature on elderly consumer and entrepreneurial behaviour.